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Jan 22, 2015
Dry but windy weather expected through Saturday as a rather cool Santa Ana wind event affects the area. A pattern change will develop early next week with a mild cutoff low from Mexico moving into our region bringing some mostly light to moderate rain showers and mostly high elevation snow above 8000ft. A colder storm but also likely weak may bring some more showers by Thursday next week.




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Second video shot and narrated by my passenger does have some brief foul language due to excitement so viewers advised.



These Videos were shot from Murrieta during the December 31st rare snow storm as it first began to hit southwest Riverside county just after midnight. This was shot driving n Clinton Keith road between the 215 and 15 freeways. By 9am New Years eve morning I measured 11.5" of snow off the Clinton Keith rd exit along the 15, and 15.5" of snow on the Santa Rosa Plateau to the west about 22 ft higher. By far the largest snow fall ever recorded in this region, the last measurable snow being in November 2004 which was about 2-4". Snow managed to stay on the ground for a full week after the snow storm, with traffic backed up for days due to surprised travelers playing in the snow.


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**Forecast:Thursday, January ,22nd, 2015, 2:00pm**

Our pleasant very typical So Cal January weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure continuing to dominate our weather overall.It does appear a burst of moderate Santa ana winds will occur tomorrow into early Saturday blowing between 35-55mph in favored valleys and mtn passes, with gust up to 75mph possible in windiest spots. There will be some cold air advection with these winds so they wont be of the hot variety, and cooling has already been witnessed this afternoon especially in the mountains. Look for highs Friday in the middle and upper 70s at the coast where the best down slope warming will occur, cooling to the middle 60s and lower 70s in the inland empire, then rather cold in the mountains with only 30s and resort level and 40s down to 5000ft, so great snow making weather for local ski resorts. Cold air advection will back off a bit Saturday for some warming with 70s widespread west of the mountains, and lower 40s and 50s in the mountains. The warmest day for a while will occur Sunday with no cold air advection and high pressure overhead with warmest valleys around 80 or so, and 50s in the mountains. Lows will range from the lower 50s at the coast, to the middle 30s and 40s inland, except 50s where the wind is blowing strong. Cold in the mountains with lower 10s and 20s due to dry air in place.

A major change in the weather will occur Monday as a mild cutoff low will get swept up from the coast of Mexico into our region by an incoming trough from the north west. Long range computer runs are still all over the place on the exact path of this low, how much tropical moisture it'll tap into, and there for how much rain we will receive. At the moment the inland empire and San Diego seem to be favored for the most precip. Winds as the low approached will still be offshore and the lower levels which will really limit the amount of rain that reaches the ground, but as the low moves overhead they will saturate for some widespread light to moderate rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms likely Tuesday afternoon with day time heating and the core passing near by. Snow levels will be very chaotic with this system which will lead to a big mess weather wise in the mountains. At first the drier air at the low and mid levels will lead to evaporative cooling which will allow snow levels to fall to between 5000-6000ft, where some very light accumulating will be possible at first. But then winds will shift to out of the south/south west which will likely push snow levels to somewhere between 7000-8500ft by Tuesday morning. With that being said if the low doesn't tap into as much tropical air as expected and decides to go further to the east of the deserts it could lead to winds more out of the north/north east which would mean lower snow levels but less precip. Also something to consider would be possible thunderstorms which could also lead to lower snow levels at times. So for now cant say much about how much snow will fall, at least below 8000ft, some accumulations are likely, but some rain if not all rain is also a possibility. Above 8500ft several inches of snow is a good bet. Rainfall wise look for highly variable amounts, but at the moment anywhere from .15-.65"+ looks possible for all of So Cal west of the mountains with some favored south west facing mountain slopes seeing an inch or so. Highs will obviously drop to slightly below normal levels Monday into Tuesday with 60s overall west of the mountains and upper 30s and 40s in the mountains.

Following the low things once again become very uncertain as the trough of low pressure and cold front that swept the cutoff low into our region wil move down through the state ad into So Cal sometime between late Wednesday night and Thursday. Long range comps are all over the place and how much if any rain will make it into our region, highly dependent on if the front manages to tap into some moisture from the south. For now at leas some showers look like a good bet, and lower snow levels as colder air spills in from up north, so resorts may have a better shot at some white stuff by the second half of next week. Looking further ahead it looks like a wet and cold weather pattern may develop for our region by late next weekend through the first week of February with a couple cold storms taking aim at our region with much lower snow levels and more wintry like weather. Despite most of January being dry we will likely finish the month only slightly below normal rain wise, with totals still at or above normal for the season to date. Dry January's are very common for California, specially the past decade or so, with the month almost every year being the driest of the winter.

As a side note, updates will continue to be very difficult until I'm able to get a working PC, so until then I highly recommend everyone to follow me on twitter if you have an account where ill be able to easily post updates each day and during the incoming storms. You can find my Twitter page by going here:



Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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Disclaimer: Socalweather.net is a privately run weather site and all forecast and possible advisories issued in no way are related to the National Weather Service or any government agency but from the sole guidance of forecaster Michael Mojarro, weather can not be controlled and all forecast are to be followed at your own will.