Nov 23, 2014
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A picture of Big Bear from a local webcam after their first measurable snowfall of the 2014/2015 wet season on the morning of 11/21/14. The Big Bear region reported anywhere from 1-4" of snow with the highest totals occurring on the south shore of the lake up near the resorts at and above 7000ft, especially in the neighborhood of Moonridge. Big bear did see some snow during the Halloween storm but it only amounted to a dusting at lake level despite it snowing fopr several hours the ground was too warm, the resorts did manage to see 1" during that storm at and above the 7500ft level, with So Cals highest mountain peaks seeing anywhere from 6-18" above 10,00ft, which for up there made it one of the top 10 largest October snow storms on record, with the two biggest October snow storms both occurring in 2004, with one in mid October and one two days before Halloween, which both dropped upwards of 4ft of snow at the 10,00ft level!.
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**Forecast:Sunday, November, 23rd, 2014, 12:00am**
Our latest storm that blew through Friday morning did exactly as I had expected, and caught many other forecasters and the general public off guard as it brought the thunderstorms I had predicted into our mountains, some deserts as well as northern parts of the Inland Empire, this after new outlets that evening said only drizzle would occure... just an example I like to pt out a couple times a year as to why I take time to run this site, so folks get a second opinion from someone that doesn't live in down town Los Angeles ;) Rain totals were highly variable as expected also but right on pt, with only trace-.10" amounts in Orange and western L.A counties, but in San Bernardino county some stations reported over 1" of rain, with one spot in the San Bernardino mtns reporting 2" of rain. Hail was reported in many areas. Pockets of heavy rain also affect much of San Diego county where over 1" fell in some mtn areas, with around a half inch falling in a stretch from Oceanside inland to Escondido along highways 76 and 78, with about .10-.50" falling elsewhere. Snow wise things went exactly as planned also, with snow levels dropping all the way to 5500ft early Friday morning in the San Bernardino mountains where many communities saw their first measurable snowfall of our wet season, with anywhere from 1-4" falling above 6000ft, with the Big Bear area seeing the most with between 3-5" at resort level, 5" falling along the tops of the resorts. 1-3" also fell in the Riverside mountains, mainly at the Palm Springs Tram, with almost 1" in Pine Cove(6100ft) but snow levels as predicted were a little higher over there closer to 7000ft.
Now onto our current weather. A dry cold front is pushing across the area this morning bringing a deep marine layer west of the mountains and some strong onshore winds in the passes, mtns and deserts with a few gust as high as 60mph. There may be some drizzle along some of the coastal valleys by sunrise but no rain is expected with this front. Onshore winds will quickly shift to out of the north east by the afternoon with high pressure building in over the Great Basin behind the cold front. This will once again set us up for a moderate-strong Santa Ana wind event late this afternoon through Tuesday morning. For today cold air advection will be strong and keep highs cool and near normal west of the mountains with upper 60s and middle 70s, with warmest temps actually along the coast due to down slop warming. In the mountains things will be cold, about 10-20 degrees colder then Saturdays temps due to strong cold air advection. Highs will be around 40 at 7000ft, with 40s all the way down to about 5500ft. Looks like a great snow making window for local ski resorts with all of them expected to be open between Tuesday and Thanksgiving. The winds will peak Monday morning, with cold air advection dying off a little bit allowing valleys to warm into the 70s, and the coast to get quite warm in the lower 80s, about 10 degrees or so above normal. Still cold in the mountains about 45 or so at resort level, and upper 40s-middle 50s down to 5500ft with continue around the clock snow making at resorts thanks to the dry air in place, they'll be able to make snow at as warm as around 43 degrees. As far as morning lows go, there will be a large spread in temperatures as always due to the winds, with wind protected areas of the I.E actually dropping into the middle 30s and 40s, with maybe even some frost in some of the colder spots, mainly Tuesday morning. Where the winds blow it'll be way warmer with middle 50s and 60s, those temperature jumps can happen over as little as half mile distance, so micro climates will very much be in affect each night. In the mountains look for 10s and 20s overall, lows may even near 10 degrees in the coldest apots around Big Bear lake Monday and Tuesday morning. As far as wind speeds go, look for gust as high as 75mph in our windiest areas, such asd the Cajon pass, Fontana, Corona, the slopes of Santa Ana and San Diego mountains. The winds will have two peak periods on Monday morning, dying off a bit in the afternoon. then another late Monday night before things drop off for all areas Tuesday.
As far as Thanksgiving goes, it looks to be very typically warm for the Holiday as a majority of them are for So Cal. It will be cooler though then Wednesday as our ridge of high pressure will begin to break down and winds will shift onshore as another pattern change begins to take place for California. Highs generally in the 70s west of the mountains for the holiday and middle 50s and 60s in the mountains. Lows for the evening in the 40s and 50s west of the mountains and 20s and 30s in the mountains, with the marine layer returning for the coast and coastal valleys overnight. Looking into the long range, current computer runs seem to be in agreement at least at the moment that another wet pattern will being to take shape for California including So Cal late in the holiday weekend. Onshore flow will continue to strengthen and temps drop for our region as the first in a big series of storms moves by to our north bringing rain to San Francisco as early as Friday evening. Latest computer runs show a second more potent storm possibly swinging a weakening cold front into our region on Sunday the last day of the month bringing some rain and mtn snow to our region, doesn't look like much at the moment but of course that could change. It looks like a much stronger storm will follow that one during the first couple days of December, and if current long range forecast just so happened to be correct right now, wed see the strongest storm of our wet season so far with significant rain and snowfall across our region, but long range has showed storms like this several times so far this Fall, and has only been correct once that far out, which was for our Halloween storm, so cross your fingers. We typically do see our first major winter storm sometime during December, although overall December historically is one of the drier months of our wet season, usually just rather cold and dry. With that being said El Nino continues to strengthen in the pacific and our coastal waters continue to remain well above normal for chances are higher that we will see above average rainfall for December. Climate computer models show El Nino continuing to strengthen, possibly reaching a moderate strength by February, so larger affect on our weather should be felt during typically the wettest months of our rain season. February and March.
Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
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