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Sep 13, 2014
Realistically our first real summer heat wave and likely our only real summer heat wave will occur today through Tuesday with highs a good 10-15 degrees above normal with 100s each afternoon once you reach 5 or mroe miles inland from the coast. Also there will be an increase in monsoon moisture Sunday and Monday which will make things feel even more uncomfortable due to higher humidtiy levels, with some thunderstorms likely in our mountains and deserts, and maybe even along the Elsinore Convergence zone in the Inland Empire which would be some welcome relief from the scorching temps in those I.E valleys which usually record the hottest temps west of the mountains for So cal.




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Wednesday morning powerful Thunderstorms taking place over Temecula, video shot by site owner Michael Mojarro.


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**Forecast: Saturday, September, 13th, 2014, 3:00am**

Look for a very hot days today and Sunday as we go through the hottest temps we have seen all summer, and really one of the very few heat waves we have seen this summer, with no real heat waves so this summer or near record breaking temps. We had some hot days but they never lasted more then two day stretches. This heat burst should last til Tuesday, but most records shouldn't be touched as they are very high for this time of year. A Heat Advisory is in affect for the I.E. Look for highs through Monday ranging from the lower 80s and 90s near the coast which has the best chance of seeing maybe a couple records fall, to the middle 90s ad lower 100s for the coastal valleys, then between about 100-110 in the Inland Empire, and 110-116 in the lower deserts. Only place to escape the heat will be the mountains with 80s overall. Lows mild in the 60s est of the mountains,a dn 40s and 50s in the mountains.

As far as moisture goes, computer runs continue to increase e monsoon push Sunday into Monday as high pressure peaks over the four corners. This will usher in some deeper moisture into So Cal Sunday and Monday afternoons, which combined with very hot ground temperatures should be more then enough to fire off some widespread showers and thunderstorms over our mountains and deserts both afternoons. In fact, it appears there could be enough heat and lifting to fire off the Elsinore Convergence zone on one of or both those afternoons, which could lead to a stray thunderstorm or two in the Inland Empire, mainly somewhere between Lake Elsinore eastward through Perris and out to Hemet. This monsoon push is of the more typical variety with no tropical system in our area just yet, just some good old fashioned moisture and extreme heat working together. This could also lead to storms reaching Severe limits. The high humidity will likely drop temperatures a couple degrees Sunday and Monday from Saturdays levels, but it may feel hotter and more uncomfortable due to the increased humidity which will likely allow Heat advisory conditions to continue with highs still well into the 100s 5 miles or more away from the coast. Cooling will be a bit more drastic in the mountains due to increased cloud cover and potential rainfall, with highs there falling back off into the lower 70s and 80s, near normal.

Things get more interesting yet uncertain at the same time weather wise as we head into the middle and later part of next week. Our ridge of high pressure will weaken a bit, shifting more over towards the four corners which will lead to cooler temps for all areas by Wednesday. With that being said, computer runs are still tracking Hurricane Odile to somewhere in our overall region sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. The big question will be if the core of whats left over from the Hurricane as it moves up the Baja coast swing far of north top go inland over So Cal, or will it stay a bit further south like Tropical Storm Norbert and go inland over Baja. Either way we should see a significant push of much deeper tropical moisture into our region with thunderstorms becoming more widespread in the mountains and deserts and likely the Inland Empire too. If whats left over from Odile manages to swing right over So Cal or along our coast we could see some widespread heavy rain across the entire region all the way to the beaches, with significant amounts of measurable rain possible just about anywhere through Friday next week. If it stays south, there will still be an increase in storm and moisture activity, but I think it would stay limited to the mountain, deserts and Inland Empire with significant rains and flash flooding risk for those areas, keeping the coast dry. Which scenario plays out remains to be seen right now as were still a bit too far out to have a good idea, and computer models are still split between which scenario will occur. Hopefully things will become more clear by Monday. So stay update of latest as we could be looking at a widespread heavy summer rain event for Si Cal by Thursday if whats left over of Odile manages to make its way over So cal! Things should dry out regardless by next weekend as the moisture will will be east of our area by then whether well to our south or pounding poor Arizona yet again with record breaking rains.

Site Owner/Forecaster, Michael Mojarro
webmaster@socalweather.net


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Disclaimer: Socalweather.net is a privately run weather site and all forecast and possible advisories issued in no way are related to the National Weather Service or any government agency but from the sole guidance of forecaster Michael Mojarro, weather can not be controlled and all forecast are to be followed at your own will.