766
FXUS66 KSGX 040522
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
922 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather with slightly below normal temperatures through
Wednesday and gusty winds over the coastal waters. Warmer and
drier weather returns late week, with well-above-normal
temperatures and weak to moderate Santa Ana winds for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Current visible satellite shows high clouds streaming in from the
north while low clouds 30 miles off the coastline continue to
scatter out. The thermal ridge axis remains over SoCal today, but
high clouds will inhibit some of the afternoon peak heating. As
such, today will mimic Monday with highs generally in the low to mid
70s for the coast and valleys, 50s for the mountains, 60s for the
High Desert and low 80s for the low desert. The ridge axis slides
eastward quickly today as a deepening low off the coast advances
towards Northern California. As this system moves inland this
evening and the gradient tightens, gusty onshore winds will develop
over the coastal waters, with a Small Craft Advisory currently in
place. Additional details can be found in the Marine Discussion
section below.

Tonight as this low moves in, an deepening marine layer across much
of San Diego County will support some localized light rainfall early
Wednesday morning for far southern SD County. While chances continue
to be 15% or less for any given area, a lucky few may experience
some wetting rain before sunrise. Otherwise, the general pattern
this week remains dry.

The low will move into Nevada on Wednesday, providing one final day
of below-normal temperatures before a warming trend returns for late
week. With the departure of the low, subsidence builds over CA with
temperatures quickly warming to well-above-normal by Friday.
Global models continue to set up high pressure over the Four
Corners with a substantial ridge stretching from Canada down to
Mexico, expected to usher in offshore flow for the majority of
California. While the exact set up remains in flux, especially on
Saturday, by Sunday, alignment is better on weak to moderate Santa
Anas bringing exceptionally warm temperatures and gusty winds to
inland valleys and coastal regions. For now, have maintained Santa
Ana winds for both Saturday and Sunday, with highs for coastal
cities in the upper 80s, quite a bit warmer than even some of the
deserts, and minor to Moderate HeatRisk will return for areas west
of the mountains. Should the system pan out with a robust high
over the Four Corners, easterly wind gusts could reach or exceed
30-40 mph in some of the more wind-prone spots, especially the
Inland Empire and coastal Orange County. With these winds,
humidity may plummet both days to the teens, even for areas west
of the mountains. We are still a bit far out to be nailing out the
details, but prepare for a windy, dry, and abnormally hot
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
040530...SCT-BKN clouds around 2000 to 4000 ft MSL will continue to
fill into the inland areas of Orange/San Diego and southern
Riverside counties. Areas of -DZ/-RA are possible (15-25% chance)
for coastal San Diego County through 07-15z Wednesday, most likely
in south county, but aren`t expected to lead to any decrease in VIS.
There is a relatively high likelihood (70+% chance) that CIGs stay
above 3000ft for the most part, but dips to 2500-3000 ft MSL are
possible, especially in southern SD County where the -DZ/-RA may
occur. Lower clouds start to scatter out around 15z Wednesday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing into the afternoon and evening
for tomorrow, with a low chance (less than 10 percent) of cigs based
around 2000 to 2500 feet returning to the coastal areas of San Diego
after 06Z Thursday and through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds gusting in the outer coastal waters 20 to 25
knots through early Wednesday morning. Strongest gusts will be found
near San Clemente Island and these winds will likely lead to rough,
choppy seas. A Small Craft Advisory for this hazard remains through
4 AM Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Waters from
     San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to 60 nm
     out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Stewey

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office