287
FXUS66 KSGX 032128
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
128 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly sunny this afternoon with a few low clouds lingering at the
beaches. Offshore flow continues with strengthening east winds
along and below the coastal slopes of the mountains. The offshore
winds will peak on Wednesday with gusts to 45 mph and isolated
gusts to 55 mph before beginning to weaken on Thursday. Mid and
high cloud will spread into the area from the southeast for
Thursday into Friday with a slight chance of showers for the
mountains late Thursday night and early Friday. There will be
drying and warming for the weekend, then cooler for next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Sunny and warm this afternoon, with temperatures as much as 11
degrees higher west of the mountains than at this time yesterday.
High temperatures today will be around 10 degrees above seasonal
averages near the coast and as much as 20 degrees above seasonal
averages in the inland valleys. The mtns and deserts will be about
10-15 degrees above average. Surface pressure gradients remain
offshore with -8.7 mb SAN-TPH and -3.7 SAN-DAG. The number of
locations reporting easterly winds gusting 25-30 mph has increased
from this morning and a few locations have reported gusts over 30
mph. A few low clouds still linger at the beaches but those will
likely dissipate overnight.

From previous discussion...
The offshore flow will strengthen before peaking Wed afternoon as
a Rex block develops, with an upper low about 200 miles off the
coast of Central Baja, an upper high over the northern Sierra and
easterly flow aloft over SoCal. At its peak Wed afternoon, the
offshore flow will produce easterly winds gusting to 45 mph and
locally to 55 mph in the mtn passes and coastal foothills. The
warming trend will continue into Wed when high temps will be in
the mid to upper 80s west of the mtns...15-20 degrees above
seasonal averages.

By Thursday, the offshore flow weakens as the upper high gets
displaced to the northeast in response to a low pressure trough
moving in from the west, and the flow aloft becomes southeasterly.
A cooling trend will begin, with high temps on Thu dropping into
the 70s and low 80s west of the mtns. The circulation around the
low to our southwest will draw some mid and high level moisture
into SoCal, resulting in a slight chance of light showers over the
San Diego County mtns for a few hours late Thu night.

The cooling trend will continue for Fri-Sat as the Rex block
breaks down and an upper low moves over the region. Temps will
still be 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages west of the mtns.
This could also bring a return of onshore flow and marine layer
low clouds/fog to the coastal areas.

A transient ridge will bring fair and warmer weather for Sunday
before a more amplified low pressure trough again brings significant
cooling, increasing clouds and chances for widespread precip next
Mon-Tue. Forecast details for Mon-Tue remain uncertain, with a
25-45 percent chance of measurable precipitation for Tuesday. At
that time, the snow level will likely be around 6,000 to 6,500
feet.


&&

.AVIATION...
032100Z...A few low clouds along the Orange County coast will
continue to clear through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR and clear
skies. Gusty easterly winds in the mountains will begin around 16z
Wed, with surface gusts up to 40-50 knots through mountain passes.
Mod up/downdrafts near mountain peaks, and localized LLWS in the
Inland Empire possible between 14z-18z Wed. Patchy BLDU possible for
much of Wednesday, decreasing VIS down to 3SM at times.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing northwesterly swell (270-280 degrees) and a long period
(15 to 16 seconds) will bring elevated to high surf beginning Friday
afternoon. Surf of 5-8 feet with locally higher sets will peak
Saturday morning before slowly falling through Sunday. Impacts will
be highest at west facing beaches, especially across San Diego
County.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to noon PST Thursday for
     Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Mountains-
     San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office