211
FXUS66 KSGX 062351
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
451 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
This long-duration heatwave will continue for the coast and
valleys through Thursday and through Friday for the lower deserts.
Cooling will spread inland for Friday and Saturday, but will
remain above normal. For Sunday through early next week, a low
pressure system along the West Coast and off the coast of Baja may
draw moisture from what was Hurricane Rachel northeastward and
into the area with a chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Today marks day five of the current heatwave. Widespread Major to
Extreme HeatRisk will continue through Wednesday for the coasts
and valleys, as heat stress compounds over time especially given
the warm overnight lows. Today several calender day high records
may be broken (updates on this may be available later this
evening). A small increase in the afternoon sea breeze has
resulted in temperatures a few degrees cooler near to the coast
compared to yesterday. Gradual cooling is anticipated each day
through Friday for coasts and valleys, and HeatRisk will drop to
mostly Moderate to Major for those areas. Expect highs around 12
to 18 degrees above average for the coast and valleys. Across the
low deserts temperatures will increase by a few degrees tomorrow
with highs of 104 to 108 widespread with Major HeatRisk, which is
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The Extreme Heat Watch for
the deserts has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning in effect
from 10 AM Wednesday through 8 PM Friday. At this point, Heat
Warnings will probably be allowed to expire Thursday evening for
areas other than the low deserts on Friday, but Heat Advisories
are very possible for Friday.

Surface pressure gradients and thus onshore winds will increase
slightly each day, and by Wednesday or Thursday a shallow marine
layer is likely return, starting with clouds and possibly dense
fog along the coasts. The marine layer will slowly deepen into
the weekend with increased coverage of clouds.


&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Cooling trends will continue into this weekend with as a fairly
deep trough will likely build down the West Coast. Limited to no
heat impacts are expected for the first time in awhile by this
Sunday with highs generally in the 70s and 80s, hottest towards
the interior.

The National Hurricane Center shows the remnant low from what was
Hurricane Rachel approaching the northern Baja of California this
weekend and will likely pass through this region by early next
week. If the storm tracks closer to the region (40-50 percent
chance), generally light showers within a tropical airmass are
possible Sunday and Monday in particular, focused south and east
of Orange County and across the mountains.

Gusty onshore winds may approach advisory levels for favored
passes mountains and deserts Sunday or Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
062240Z...SCT shallow cumulus clouds based near 10 kft over the
mountain ridges dissipating by 03Z. There is a 40% chance of CIGS
below 500 ft and fog with vis 1 SM or less developing along the
coast 09-18Z, though chances of these low CIGs/VIS at the coastal
TAF sites are less than 30%. Higher chances of low clouds and fog
returning to the coastal areas Wed night.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing south swells will create surf of 3-5 feet with sets to 6
feet on south and southwest facing beaches Wednesday through Friday.
Strong rip and longshore currents are expected. In addition, this
elevated surf will combine with high tides during the mornings and
evenings to generate local coastal flooding and beach erosion. The
Beach Hazards Statement and Coastal Flood Advisory contain the
details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains
     and Foothills.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Friday
     for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal
     Areas.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Friday for
     Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass
     near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RM/RS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office