502
FXUS65 KVEF 201916
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1215 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Near-normal temperatures and elevated fire danger expected across
  the region today before winds subside and temperatures rise
  through the work week.

* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late
  week as monsoonal moisture surges northward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.

Weak trough that brought the windy conditions over the past couple
of days will continue to shift east allowing high pressure to expand
north from Mexico into the Desert Southwest. Breezy conditions this
afternoon across east central Nevada will lead to enhanced fire
weather conditions, but with lighter winds expected Sunday that
threat will be reduced. Temperatures will steadily climb over the
next few days with readings expected to be near-10 degrees above-
normal by midweek along with widespread Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2
of 4). There will also be some pockets of Major Heat Risk (Level 3
of 4) across portions of the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley, the
lower Colorado River Valley.

Ensemble means continue to show monsoonal moisture pushing northward
during the middle portions of next week. How far north the moisture
expands is still in question, but the latest model runs indicate the
0.75" PW line working as far north as the I-15 corridor with the
1.00" line reaching as far north as a Twentynine Palms to Laughlin
to Kingman line by Thursday afternoon. There remains some
uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of the center of
the aforementioned high pressure system and any minor shifts could
result in increased or decreased chances of precipitation across the
forecast area. At this point, instability remains fairly weak and
the better chances of showers and thunderstorms look to remain over
the higher terrain (~20%). Another trough moving into the west coast
late in the week is forecast to bring in much drier air with any
monsoonal moisture being shoved east by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...South winds are expected through the afternoon, gusting 15-
20KT. Gusts over 20KT are possible (50% chance) between 22Z to 01Z
as winds shift to around 220 degrees (true). Gusts will end around
sunset. Elevated south winds at 8-10KT are expected through much of
the night before becoming light early Sunday morning. Winds on
Sunday will be lighter than they have been the past few days with no
gusts expected. East to southeast winds around 8KT are expected on
Sunday. VFR skies. Smoke from nearby wildfires should not reduce
visibility or CIGs directly at the terminals through the period,
though wildfire smoke may impact slantwise visibility at times.
Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 21Z-01Z today, then
again after 21Z on Sunday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT
are expected at KDAG with gusts over 25KT late this afternoon
through the evening. Elsewhere, breezy south to southwest winds are
expected with widespread 15-25KT gusts expected. Winds will diminish
after sunset with gusts ending for most locations by 03Z. Typical
light wind patterns overnight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions
persist through the period. Smoke from wildfires will advect
northeast this afternoon in eastern Nevada into Utah, then dissipate
as winds diminish tonight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Nickerson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office