430
FXUS65 KVEF 032245
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
235 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty north winds will continue down the Colorado River Valley
  through Wednesday. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with
  dry condition and above normal temperatures the next few days.

* A weak system could bring low chances for precipitation Friday
  to parts of the region, but impacts are not expected.

* A pattern shift arrives early next week which will bring cooler
  temperatures as well as the potential for precipitation and
  breezy winds. High confidence for a change in the weather but
  details remain uncertain.


&&

.DISCUSSION...through Early Next Week.

Not a cloud in the sky over the region this afternoon as a dry upper
level ridge builds over the Southwest US. Satellite does show a low
starting to spin up off the coast of the Baja Peninsula where it
will remain the next few days. In response to the increased
pressure gradient between the two systems, enhanced north winds
developed down the Colorado River Valley this afternoon.
Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH have been reported in the lower
Colorado River Valley with isolated higher gusts in typical windy
spots. Breezy north winds will continue tonight and Wednesday as
the weather set up changes little in the next 24 hours. Similar or
slightly lower gusts are expected tomorrow afternoon in the
Colorado River Valley. Boaters should use caution as building
waves on gusty north winds are likely on Lake Mohave and Lake
Havasu. Elsewhere, winds may favor the north on Wednesday with
gust up to 20 MPH, but wind impacts are not expected. By Thursday,
the ridge starts to break down and winds are expected to slowly
diminish in the Colorado River Valley and light winds are expected
elsewhere. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the
rest of the week.

The low off the coast of the Baja Peninsula will eject northeast
into the region on Friday, potentially interacting with an incoming
weakening trough over the West Coast. Models are struggling to
resolve how/if the low phases with the trough as well as how much
moisture will be pulled up with it. The current precipitation
forecast on Friday is mostly dry with low chances in the Sierra
and Spring Mountains- uncertain if this will change as models
better resolve the situation. Even if low chances for
precipitation become more widespread, meteogram members across
multiple ensembles do not show impactful amounts so rain/snow
amounts should be light. In addition, the low will be quick
hitting so precipitation would be short lived, which would also
limit impacts. Warm air will be associated with this systems so
temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

After a brief break, a more potent trough is expected to move in the
beginning of next week. Cluster analysis members all show a deep
upper level system dropping into the region Monday and Tuesday but
differ on strength and track. This would result in increased chances
for precipitation and winds, but little confidence in any specific
details. There is increasing confidence for cooler temperatures the
beginning of next week compared to the recent mild conditions as
this trough moves in.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Generally light winds favoring typical diurnal trends will
continue through Wednesday morning with clear skies. Northeasterly
winds will be on the increase by midday with speeds of 8-12 knots
expected and sporatic gusts to around 18 knots. Winds will ease
after sunset and begin to shift more to the west or northwest after
nightfall.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty north winds will
continue along the Colorado River Valley through the period, with
the strongest winds expected during the daylight hours in the 25 -
35 knot range near EED and IFP. Elsewhere, northeasterly breezes are
expected in the afternoon hours of a lesser intensity, with the
exception of BIH where winds are expected to remain fairly light.
Skies will be clear areawide.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Outler

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office