717
FXUS65 KVEF 152100
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
200 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat gradually builds through mid-week as moisture gets squeezed
  into our southern areas.

* Temperatures return to seasonable values and southwest breezes
  increase during the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the weekend.

Subtle 500mb height rises and decreasing moisture will reduce
convective coverage today. This morning`s 12z sounding showed a PWAT
decrease of ~0.25", supporting model depictions of the better
moisture retreating southward. Expecting isolated to widely
scattered convection in areas south/southeast of Las Vegas today.
Main concern will be lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph.
On Tuesday, any shower/storm activity should be confined to areas
south of I-40. Elsewhere, dry and warming conditions prevail through
Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to run 6-10 degrees above
normal as they peak Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to
major HeatRisk. We`re getting to the time of year where the heat
poses a threat to anyone without adequate cooling/hydration, not
just those sensitive to heat, so be sure to take proper precautions.

As we get into the second half of the week, ensemble guidance
continues to show a shortwave trough coming in off the Pacific and
dismantling the ridge. While this occurs, temperatures drop to
seasonable values and southwest winds increase. At the moment,
generally expecting widespread gusts of 25-35 mph, which may cause
some boating impacts and raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...
Southerly winds with gusts of 15 to 20 knots are expected through
the evening hours before easing after sunset.  Similar conditions
will resume for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will exceed 100
degrees through 04Z...and return tomorrow after 18z. VFR conditions
with FEW to SCT clouds around 15kft are expected through the
afternoon, otherwise clear skies expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Afternoon breezes out of
the south or southwest will be favored for the regional TAF sites
through the afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible. Winds
will gradually ease overnight before returning by Tuesday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over northwestern Arizona
this afternoon and evening but otherwise dry conditions are
expected. Any storms could produce lightning and sudden gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Outler

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office