235
FXUS66 KLOX 041149
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
449 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/336 AM.

Below normal temperatures, patchy marine layer clouds, and breezy
onshore winds will continue today. Tropical Cyclone Marie, which
will remain well offshore of SoCal, will bring impacts to the
region over the weekend into early next week. Rain is favored for
Sunday focused over Los Angeles County. Increasing southerly
swell will create hazardous surf conditions at the coasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...04/339 AM.

We have high confidence in potentially deadly rip currents and
large waves this holiday weekend focused across south facing
beaches (spreading north from Marie). Please consider swimming
near a lifeguard and check in with the lifeguard if you or a
loved one is an inexperienced ocean swimmer. Please see the
beaches section below for details on this threat.

Otherwise forecast confidence dwindles quickly this weekend,
especially into Sunday as a unseasonably persistent trough near
the West Coast will likely merges with moisture well in advance
of slowly weakening Tropical Cyclone Marie. We have increasing
confidence in light to moderate rain as early as Saturday evening
but especially into Sunday is quite likely (50-80 percent chance)
for LA County, quickly dwindling westward (20-50 percent) chance
for Ventura/Santa Barbara County and less than 20 percent chance
for San Luis Obispo County. The bullseye of this activity could
feasibly shift as far north of Ventura County or as far south as
Orange County.

This is a very rare pattern for our part of the country,
especially in early September, as a strong (for early september),
favorable part of a jet stream peaking near 120 kt interacts with
the tropical moisture (precipitable waters may approach
incredible values of 2 inches across portions of LA County) and
moderate lapse rates to support scattered mainly light to moderate
showers. However, there is a 5 percent chance of excessive
rainfall with minor flooding in embedded heavier showers or
thunderstorms (5-15 percent chance) focused across the LA County
mountains and urban areas. While any embedded heavier showers or
thunderstorms will mostly be moving at decent pace, any stalled or
training cells could produce greater than a quarter of an inch in
an hour. Rainfall totals as a whole will be less than a half of
an inch (probably under a quarter of an inch where most people
live), focused across LA County, isolated higher amounts will be
possible, especially coastal facing mountains.

The increased cloud cover this weekend, especially into Sunday,
will likely disrupt typical diurnal winds (including Sundowners)
and should trend weaker accordingly. It will feel warmer
especially near the coast and outside of rain, as humidity
increases once again, especially from Santa Barbara County and
south. Although daytime temperatures probably will not warm too
much for most areas, overnight lows could be quite warm and only
into the 70s for our southern coasts and coastal valleys where
clouds persist into the overnight Saturday.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...04/342 AM.

Well below normal forecast confidence continues into the extended
period as an unusually active jet stream continues to be near and
possibly phasing with tropical moisture from what`s left of
Marie at times.

A break in the action is possible early next week, although
lingering moisture may be able to squeeze out drizzle or an
occasional shower. A warming trend is most likely with near to
slightly above normal temperatures.

Southwest California may become sandwiched between a ridge to the
southeast and a pesky trough to the west for the middle to end of
the week, keeping the door open for additional tropical moisture.
The associated southwest flow aloft may bring unsettled weather,
although timing, location, and potential impacts are uncertain
that far out.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1142Z.

At 08Z at KLAX, a moist layer was around 2500 ft with no
inversion.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate confidence KSMX and north and low confidence for other
coastal and coastal valley TAFs with a 30-50 percent chance that
VFR conds prevail. Where cigs/vsbys occur, MVFR will be most
common but may improve to VFR before scattering out for most
terminals 15-18Z.

Moderate confidence that tonight will tend to be improved save for
KSMX and KSBP where there is a 30-50 percent chance of IFR to low
MVFR cigs/vsbys starting 05Z-09Z.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF with a 30 percent chance that VFR
conds prevail. Good confidence that any east wind component will
remain below 6 kt.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF with a 40-50 percent chance that VFR
conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...04/134 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds will be common each afternoon
and night for the offshore waters off the Central Coast for the
foreseeable future. All of other waters should stay below SCA.

Tropical moisture will approach the area Sunday through at least
Tuesday. While unlikely at this point, there is a 5 to 10 percent
chance of a thunderstorm over the coastal waters, highest south of
Point Conception. A large south swell will also impact the area,
causing increased currents and surges in the vulnerable harbors.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Saturday morning
      through Tuesday evening for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RK/DB
SYNOPSIS...Lewis/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office