574
FXUS66 KLOX 041613
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
813 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...04/251 AM.

Mostly clear skies, dry conditions, a general warming trend and
periods of offshore winds are likely through the week. Warmest
and windiest conditions likely Friday-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...04/811 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies
across the area except for some clouds/fog across interior
sections of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties. Current
sounding data indicates a very deep inversion, around 5000 feet in
depth. As for winds, northerly winds, gusting 25-35 MPH, are
observed across Santa Barbara county.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, no significant issues
are expected. Current interior clouds/fog will dissipate by late
morning with sunny skies expected for all areas this afternoon.
As for winds, current northerly winds will diminish a bit through
the day, but will likely increase once again this evening. At
this time, do not see any potential for widespread advisory-level
winds.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short
term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

A weak trof that brought some showers to the Central Coast last
evening is now moving out of the area. A small ridge will follow
in its footsteps today. That will transition to dry NW flow
Thursday. A sharper ridge will then push into nrn CA on Fri. This
will switch the upper level flow to the NE. 1 to 2 mb of offshore
flow will develop today and then increase to about 4 mb by Friday.

There will be some low clouds and dense fog across the Central
Coast early this morning, but aside from the that skies will be
mostly clear through the short term.

The csts and vlys will warm a little today as the offshore flow
starts up. Cooler air moving in to the far interior will bring 4
to 8 degrees of cooling to that area. Max temps will end up 3 to 6
degrees blo normal today. Thursday will be warmer as the offshore
flow kicks in and hgts rise a little. Look for 4 to 6 degrees of
warming across the csts and vlys and 2 or 3 degrees over the rest
of the area. Friday will see another 2 to 4 degrees of warming
which will bring max temps across the csts/vlys into the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

There will not be too much wind today and only weak offshore
canyon winds on Thursday. Friday`s winds will be stronger and more
noticeable but should remain below advisory level.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...04/251 AM.

Ridging and offshore flow will continue over the weekend. While
There will be canyon winds each morning there is only a 30-40
percent chc that they will reach low end advisory criteria. Skies
will be mostly clear through the period. Max temps should bump up
another 2 to 3 degrees Saturday and then change little on Sunday.
Weekend max temps will be in the lower to mid 80s for almost all
of the csts/vlys or 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

A high hgt dry upper low forms under the ridge and aporaches and
moves over Srn CA during the Mon/Tue time frame. It should have
little effect on the sensable weather. The more important factor
will be the weakening of the offshore flow. There should be enough
to keep the low clouds away, but not enough to prevent an earlier
sea breeze. Max temps should cool 2 or 3 degrees each day. Despite
this cooling max, max temps will remain at least 5 degrees over
normal.

It should then remain dry through Wed the 11th. After that all
long range mdls, AI, Deterministic and Ensemble all show an
increased chc of rain from the 12th to the 19th.

&&

.AVIATION...04/1611Z.

At 1600Z at LAX, there was no marine layer. However, there was a
moist layer up to 6000 feet.

Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package as CAVU conditions are
expected through the period. However, there is a 15-20% chance of
VLIFR conditions at KPRB in the 10Z-17Z time frame.

KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...04/811 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today
through Friday, a combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds and seas will prevail. For Saturday and Sunday, SCA level
seas are expected to continue with winds dropping below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, there is
a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening
hours. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20% chance of SCA
level north to northeast winds, mainly in the overnight and
morning hours and seas will approach SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels, except
for SCA winds in the western Santa Barbara Channel in the late
afternoon and evening hours. For Friday through Saturday, there
is a 20-30% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south
to Santa Monica in the night and morning hours. On Sunday, winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.

Through Thursday, the gusty winds will likely result in choppy,
short-period, seas.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST this evening for zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Thompson
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office