207
FXUS66 KLOX 211609
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
909 AM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026

.SYNOPSIS...21/844 AM.

Despite noticeable cooling today temperatures will remain well
above normal. Areas of dense coastal fog are possible this the
weekend as well. Temperatures will trend upward again next week
but are not expected to be as hot as this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...21/854 AM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures are trending 5-10 degrees cooler today in all areas
except the deserts. This has been expected due to weakening high
pressure aloft and increasing onshore flow. Temperatures will
still be above normal but only by 10-15 degrees instead of 20-30
as has been the coast most of the week. Dense fog has returned to
portions of the coast and the coastal waters this morning and will
likely continue into Sunday morning.

Probably no significant changes to the rest of the 7 day forecast.
Did notice that forecast gradients are not as strong from the
north as models have been advertising the last few days so if this
pans out then north winds will not be as strong as initially
expected next week and temperatures may not be quite as warm.

***From Previous Discussion***

The ridge will flatten out today as some energy moves into the
north of the state. More importantly there will be onshore (albeit
weak) flow both to the east and north. All mdls are forecasting
that a shallow marine layer cloud deck will form towards dawn, but
not sure this is going to happen as skies are very clear right
now. Some high clouds to the west will move over the area today
and skies will be partly cloudy at times. The big news is that the
onshore flow and falling hgts will lead to 8 to 12 degrees of
cooling. Even with this very noticeable cooling max temps will
still end up 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Still this cooling is
enough to eliminate the need for heat advisories.

The onshore flow will continue tonight and into the morning and
there will be another chc of coastal low clouds esp south of Pt
Conception. The falling hgts should lift the marine layer enough
to preclude the formation of dense fog.

Hgts fall to 581 dam on Sunday but some offshore flow from the
north develops. This will not only chase away the low clouds by
mid morning but it will also create pockets of warming. While most
areas will only see a degree or two of warming the SBA south coast
will see 5 or so degrees of warming due to the north flow off of
the Santa Ynez Range. Sunday`s max temps will end up 12 to 18
degrees warmer than normal.

The upper high begins to reassert itself on Monday with hgts rise
to 588 dam. Weak onshore flow to the east continue, but the
offshore flow from the north will strengthen. There may be a
little marine layer clouds in the morning near Long Beach but
aside from that skies will be sunny. Max temps will respond by
warming 2 to 4 degrees. The csts will end up mostly in the 80s and
the vlys will reach the lower to mid 90s. There is a small chance
that some heat advisories may be needed but more likely they wont
be needed until Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...21/251 AM.

Tuesday through Thursday will be very warm days, but will not be
record breaking like last week`s. The upper high will not be
overhead and hgts will be a few dam lower. Additionally while
there will be offshore flow from the north there will be onshore
flow to the east. Highs will continue in the 80s and 90s or 15 to
20 degrees above normal. There may be a need for heat advisories
in the vlys but no warnings are anticipated.

The ridge weakens some on Friday and the onshore push to the east
increases. This will likely bring 3 to 5 degrees of cooling to the
csts and 1 to 3 degrees in the vlys.

There is growing confidence that the rest of the month will be
dry. The AI-mdls still show some chc of light rain at the
beginningof April.

&&

.AVIATION...21/1608Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 800 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 24 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KSBP, KSMX, KBUR,
KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX and KLGB, moderate confidence in
18Z TAFs. Lower confidence due to uncertainties in timing of
CIG/VSBY restrictions tonight (could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts) and flight category (could range from IFR to VLIFR).

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight
changes this evening/overnight could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts. Also, there is a 30% chance of VLIFR conditions
07Z-14Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as VFR conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...21/643 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. From today through Wednesday, high confidence in Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and/or seas. GALE Warning has
been issued for PZZ670 in effect from this evening thru early
Sunday morning. Additionally, there is a 20-40% chance of GALE
FORCE winds on Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through this afternoon, moderate
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. From
this afternoon through Wednesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA
level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For most of the southern Inner
Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels through Wednesday. The only exception will be the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% chance
of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening thru aforementioned
period.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Black/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office